茫茫投资路，谁与天比高—长寿的芒格最终没过100岁

分享芒格经验

1. Risk—All investment evaluations should begin by measuring risk, especially reputational
Incorporate an appropriate margin of safety
Avoid dealing with people of questionable characterInsist upon proper compensation for risk assumed
Always beware of inflation and interest rate exposures
Avoid big mistakes; shun permanent capital loss
2. Independence—“Only in fairy tales are emperors told they are naked”
Objectivity and rationality require independence of thought
Remember that just because other people agree or disagree with you doesn’t make you right or wrong—the only thing that matters is the correctness of your analysis and judgment
Mimicking the herd invites regression to the mean (merely average performance)
3. Preparation—“The only way to win is to work, work, work, work, and hope to have a few insights”
Develop into a lifelong self-learner through voracious reading; cultivate curiosity and strive to become a little wiser every day
More important than the will to win is the will to prepare
Develop fluency in mental models from the major academic disciplines
If you want to get smart, the question you have to keep asking is “why, why, why?”
4. Intellectual humility—Acknowledging what you don’t know is the dawning of wisdom
Stay within a well-defined circle of competence
Identify and reconcile disconfirming evidence
Resist the craving for false precision, false certainties, etc.
Above all, never fool yourself, and remember that you are the easiest person to fool
5. Analytic rigor—Use of the scientific method and effective checklists minimizes errors and omissions
Determine value apart from price; progress apart from activity; wealth apart from sizeIt
is better to remember the obvious than to grasp the esoteric
Be a business analyst, not a market, macroeconomic, or security analyst
Consider totality of risk and effect; look always at potential second order and higher level impacts
Think forwards and backwards—Invert, always invert
6. Allocation—Proper allocation of capital is an investor’s number one job
Remember that highest and best use is always measured by the next best use (opportunity cost)
Good ideas are rare—when the odds are greatly in your favor, bet (allocate) heavily
Don’t “fall in love” with an investment—be situation-dependent and opportunity-driven
7. Patience—Resist the natural human bias to act
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world” (Einstein); never interrupt it unnecessarily
Avoid unnecessary transactional taxes and frictional costs; never take action for its own sake
Be alert for the arrival of luck
Enjoy the process along with the proceeds, because the process is where you live

8. Decisiveness—When proper circumstances present themselves, act with decisiveness and conviction
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful
Opportunity doesn’t come often, so seize it when it does
Opportunity meeting the prepared mind: that’s the game
9. Change—Live with change and accept un-removable complexity
Recognize and adapt to the true nature of the world around you; don’t expect it to adapt to you
Continually challenge and willingly amend your “best-loved ideas”
Recognize reality even when you don’t like it—especially when you don’t like it
10. Focus—Keep things simple and remember what you set out to do
Remember that reputation and integrity are your most valuable assets—and can be lost in a heartbeat
Guard against the effects of hubris and boredom
Don’t overlook the obvious by drowning in minutiae
Be careful to exclude unneeded information or slop: “A small leak can sink a great ship”
Face your big troubles; don’t sweep them under the rug

————————————————————————————————————————————————————共勉